Risk-aversion optimal hedging scenarios during droughts

Abstract The primary purpose of a water supply reservoir is to regular highly fluctuating streamflow for providing reliable supplies. Reducing shortage risk impending droughts challenge task in real-time operation due future inflow uncertainty. main aim this study propose risk-aversion optimal hedging scenarios during droughts, which achieved by two-stage approach. probabilities lead times are analytically estimated first, then follows an optimization framework that simultaneously minimizing and sustaining long-term reliability. With illustration application the Nanhua Reservoir located southern Taiwan, results indicate proposed provides efficient reduce mitigate severe shortages operation. outperforms rule-curve-based current Further improvements noted time-varying rationing coefficient than constant-coefficient scenario most favorable with highest frequency. Using storage trigger associated lead-time as objective functions, not only aversion but also executable droughts.